Economist

Key points Introduction This Budget is the most consequential in years given the Government’s committing to address poor productivity – and by implication stagnant living standards – while also dealing with the impact of the global oil shock and issues around intergenerational equity. As such…

Key points The RBA hikes to 4.35% The RBA’s decision to hike rates to 4.35% was no surprise with it being about 75% factored in by the money market and 21 of the 22 economists surveyed by Bloomberg expecting a hike. The decision means that…

Key points Introduction As an economist working for an investment manager, Australian Federal Budgets can be tedious. They generate lots of fanfare along with a flurry of activity but invariably come and go with little impact on investment markets – all to be forgotten a…

Key points Introduction Most of the time share markets are relatively calm, but periodically they tumble and generate headlines like “billions wiped off share market.” Sometimes it ends quickly and the market heads back up again. But every so often share markets keep falling for…

Key points Introduction The RBA’s decision to hike rates to 4.1% means that it has now reversed all but one of the three rate cuts we saw last year, which of course followed 13 rate hikes seen in 2022 and 2023. Once passed on to…

Key points Introduction Oil and investment markets initially reacted relatively calmly to the US/Israel war with Iran, despite the Strait of Hormuz through which 20-25% of global oil and gas supplies flow through on a daily basis being closed from the get go. However, as…

Key Points Introduction Geopolitical shocks have been a rising feature this year with US “interventions” in various countries – Nigeria, Venezuela, Greenland and now Iran. It now looks like Venezuela was a planned precursor to Iran with the US and Israel launching broad based attacks…

Key points Introduction Australian shares have had a strong start to 2026 with the ASX 200 up 3.3% and flirting with a new record high. The local market has also outperformed US shares which are down 0.1% and global shares which are up 1.6%. However,…

Key points Introduction Much in economics is shades of grey and so subject to some debate. This has certainly been the case around the rebound in inflation in Australia, the RBA’s response and what’s driving it. This note looks at the key issues. Why did…

Key points Introduction The RBA’s decision to hike rates to 3.85% was no surprise with it being about 70% factored in by the money market and 22 of the 28 economists surveyed by Bloomberg expecting a hike. We thought that the RBA should and (wrongly…

Key points Introduction While a casual observation of economists would suggest they are invariably at logger heads this partly reflects the tendency of the media to juxtapose economists with contrasting views on issues like where interest rates, inflation or unemployment are heading. On top of…

Key points Introduction Despite uncertainty around US President Trump’s policies, geopolitics and interest rates, 2025 saw strong investment returns on the back of falling interest rates, solid economic and profit growth globally and expectations for stronger profit growth in Australia. AI enthusiasm boosted US shares…

Key points Lots of uncertainty by 2025 turned out okay… 2025 initially saw turmoil as US President Trump announced tariffs that were much higher than expected along with a bunch of other moves to upend US institutions and the global economic order. But the global…

Key points Lots of uncertainty by 2025 turned out okay… 2025 initially saw turmoil as US President Trump announced tariffs that were much higher than expected along with a bunch of other moves to upend US institutions and the global economic order. But the global…